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How many copies did PANZER BALL sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 30k–49k
$41k–$111k after Steam's cut $75k–$170k before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid PANZER BALL and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including PANZER BALL's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.3M–5.1M
best case 12.4M (Human Fall Flat)
Games like PANZER BALL

A typical game among these

≈ 1.3M–5.1M copies

≈ $10.9M–$33.7M after Steam's cut

from ~45k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is First-Person (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Human Fall Flat at ≈ 9.5M–15.4M copies, ≈ $52.0M–$139.7M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share First-Person (3 of 8) and Gore (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Co-op + Puzzle, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2019, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 36 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

My Friend Pedro
2019
Est. copies
≈ 821k–1.3M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.5M–$12.1M after Steam's cut $8.2M–$18.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
28k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ActionIndie
Human Fall Flat
2016
Est. copies
≈ 9.5M–15.4M
5.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$52.0M–$139.7M after Steam's cut $94.5M–$214.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
227k reviews
Very Positive
Co-opFunny
Ultimate Chicken Horse
2016
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$9.2M–$24.8M after Steam's cut $16.8M–$38.1M before Steam's cut
$14.99
54k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MultiplayerParty
Outlast
2013
Est. copies
≈ 8.8M–14.4M
3.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$36.4M–$98.0M after Steam's cut $66.3M–$150.7M before Steam's cut
$14.99
140k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HorrorFirst-Person
SpeedRunners
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$6.4M–$17.2M after Steam's cut $11.6M–$26.4M before Steam's cut
$14.99
37k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerRacing
Outlast 2
2017
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.2M–$32.9M after Steam's cut $22.2M–$50.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
65k reviews
Very Positive
Refunct
2015
Est. copies
≈ 852k–1.4M
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$701k–$1.9M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$2.9M before Steam's cut
$2.99
17k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Parkour3D Platformer
BONEWORKS
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.7M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.7M–$23.3M after Steam's cut $15.8M–$35.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
36k reviews
Very Positive
VRPhysics

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