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How many copies did Spelldrifter sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 446–725
$2k–$7k after Steam's cut $4k–$10k before Steam's cut
from 18 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Spelldrifter and predicted how it would do from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including Spelldrifter's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 93k–594k
best case 799k (Marvel's Midnight Suns)
Games like Spelldrifter

A typical game among these

≈ 93k–594k copies

≈ $771k–$10.0M after Steam's cut

from ~10k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 4 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Marvel's Midnight Suns at ≈ 609k–990k copies, ≈ $10.0M–$27.0M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 3k reviews in their first month; the range was 521 to 6k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Tactical RPG (4 of 4) and Turn-Based Tactics (3 of 4).
The winners
Winners here lead with Superhero + Turn-Based Tactics, priced around $60.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2022. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Gloomhaven
2021
Est. copies
≈ 400k–650k
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.9M–$10.4M after Steam's cut $7.0M–$15.9M before Steam's cut
$34.99
16k reviews
Very Positive
Online Co-OpDark Fantasy
Marvel's Midnight Suns
2022
Est. copies
≈ 609k–990k
2.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$10.0M–$27.0M after Steam's cut $18.3M–$41.6M before Steam's cut
$59.99
25k reviews
Very Positive
SuperheroTurn-Based Tactics
Trials of Fire
2021
Est. copies
≈ 81k–131k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$445k–$1.2M after Steam's cut $809k–$1.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
Card BattlerTurn-Based Tactics
Warhammer Underworlds - Shadespire Edition (Classic)
2020
Est. copies
≈ 41k–67k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$339k–$910k after Steam's cut $615k–$1.4M before Steam's cut
$29.99
2k reviews
Mixed
Turn-Based TacticsCard Battler

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