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How many copies did 502's Arcade sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 521–846
$1k–$4k after Steam's cut $3k–$6k before Steam's cut
from 21 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid 502's Arcade and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including 502's Arcade's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.7M–9.0M
best case 8.7M (Vampire Survivors)
Games like 502's Arcade

A typical game among these

≈ 3.7M–9.0M copies

≈ $17.9M–$42.3M after Steam's cut

from ~104k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Vampire Survivors at ≈ 6.6M–10.7M copies, ≈ $9.1M–$24.4M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Platformer (5 of 8) and 2D Platformer (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action Roguelike + Bullet Hell, priced around $5.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Vampire Survivors
2022
Est. copies
≈ 6.6M–10.7M
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$9.1M–$24.4M after Steam's cut $16.5M–$37.5M before Steam's cut
$4.99
267k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Action RoguelikeBullet Hell
Pizza Tower
2023
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–2.9M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$9.9M–$26.7M after Steam's cut $18.0M–$41.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
73k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Great Soundtrack2D Platformer
Katana ZERO
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$9.0M–$24.3M after Steam's cut $16.4M–$37.4M before Steam's cut
$14.99
76k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Pixel GraphicsAction
Cuphead
2017
Est. copies
≈ 7.6M–12.4M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$41.9M–$112.7M after Steam's cut $76.2M–$173.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
222k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DifficultCartoon
Hotline Miami 2: Wrong Number
2015
Est. copies
≈ 3.9M–6.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$16.2M–$43.5M after Steam's cut $29.4M–$66.9M before Steam's cut
$14.99
80k reviews
Very Positive
Great SoundtrackGore
Hotline Miami
2012
Est. copies
≈ 8.1M–13.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$22.3M–$60.0M after Steam's cut $40.6M–$92.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
128k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Great SoundtrackViolent
Broforce
2015
Est. copies
≈ 3.0M–4.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.3M–$33.0M after Steam's cut $22.3M–$50.8M before Steam's cut
$14.99
61k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AmericaAction
Celeste
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.5M–7.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.9M–$67.0M after Steam's cut $45.3M–$103.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
149k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive

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