How much revenue did Hotline Miami 2: Wrong Number make?

$16.2M–$43.5M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Hotline Miami 2: Wrong Number sell?

Q: How many copies did Hotline Miami 2: Wrong Number sell?

3.9M to 6.4M copies, based on its 80k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 3.9M–6.4M; $16.2M–$43.5M after Steam's cut $29.4M–$66.9M before Steam's cut; from 80k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Hotline Miami 2: Wrong Number and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Hotline Miami 2: Wrong Number's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.5M–7.0M

best case 33.8M (The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth)

Games like Hotline Miami 2: Wrong Number

A typical game among these

≈ 2.5M–7.0M copies

≈ $13.1M–$38.0M after Steam's cut

from ~68k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Gore (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth at ≈ 25.8M–41.9M copies, ≈ $106.2M–$285.5M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Gore (3 of 8) and Violent (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Action Roguelike + Rogue-like, priced around $15.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2010 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
CARRION 2020	Est. copies ≈ 895k–1.5M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $4.9M–$13.2M after Steam's cut $8.9M–$20.3M before Steam's cut	$19.99	36k reviews Very Positive	Villain ProtagonistPixel Graphics
Hotline Miami 2012	Est. copies ≈ 8.1M–13.2M 1.9x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $22.3M–$60.0M after Steam's cut $40.6M–$92.3M before Steam's cut	$9.99	128k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Great SoundtrackViolent
UNO 2017	Est. copies ≈ 1.9M–3.0M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $5.1M–$13.8M after Steam's cut $9.3M–$21.2M before Steam's cut	$9.99	54k reviews Mostly Positive	Card GameMultiplayer
Katana ZERO 2019	Est. copies ≈ 2.2M–3.6M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $9.0M–$24.3M after Steam's cut $16.4M–$37.4M before Steam's cut	$14.99	76k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Pixel GraphicsAction
Super Meat Boy 2010	Est. copies ≈ 2.5M–4.0M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $10.2M–$27.5M after Steam's cut $18.6M–$42.3M before Steam's cut	$14.99	39k reviews Very Positive	Precision Platformer Platformer
Blasphemous 2019	Est. copies ≈ 2.0M–3.2M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $18.8M–$50.7M after Steam's cut $34.3M–$78.0M before Steam's cut	$34.99	68k reviews Very Positive	MetroidvaniaPixel Graphics
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth 2014	Est. copies ≈ 25.8M–41.9M 6.8x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $106.2M–$285.5M after Steam's cut $193.0M–$439.2M before Steam's cut	$14.99	460k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Action RoguelikeRogue-like
Call of Duty®: Black Ops III 2015	Est. copies ≈ 309k–501k too small to compare SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $5.1M–$13.7M after Steam's cut $9.3M–$21.1M before Steam's cut	$59.99	6k reviews Mostly Negative	MultiplayerFPS