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How many copies did Axiom of Maria: Prologue sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–3k
$5k–$14k after Steam's cut $9k–$21k before Steam's cut
from 76 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Axiom of Maria: Prologue and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Axiom of Maria: Prologue's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.5M–2.3M
best case 32.0M (Cyberpunk 2077)
Games like Axiom of Maria: Prologue

A typical game among these

≈ 1.5M–2.3M copies

≈ $9.2M–$17.8M after Steam's cut

from ~39k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Cyberpunk 2077 at ≈ 24.4M–39.6M copies, ≈ $402.0M–$1080.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 12k reviews in their first month; the range was 8k to 326k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Story Rich (6 of 8) and Cyberpunk (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Choices Matter + Story Rich, priced around $40.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

SANABI
2023
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$4.6M–$12.4M after Steam's cut $8.4M–$19.1M before Steam's cut
$14.99
45k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Pixel GraphicsStory Rich
BlazBlue Entropy Effect
2024
Est. copies
≈ 908k–1.5M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$5.0M–$13.4M after Steam's cut $9.1M–$20.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
37k reviews
Very Positive
Action RoguelikeAction-Adventure
Detroit: Become Human
2020
Est. copies
≈ 6.6M–10.7M
6.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$72.1M–$193.9M after Steam's cut $131.1M–$298.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
264k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Choices MatterStory Rich
METAL GEAR RISING: REVENGEANCE
2014
Est. copies
≈ 5.0M–8.1M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$41.1M–$110.6M after Steam's cut $74.8M–$170.2M before Steam's cut
$29.99
89k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Great SoundtrackHack and Slash
Cyberpunk 2077
2020
Est. copies
≈ 24.4M–39.6M
25x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$402.0M–$1080.8M after Steam's cut $730.9M–$1662.7M before Steam's cut
$59.99
983k reviews
Very Positive
CyberpunkOpen World
Deus Ex: Mankind Divided
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–2.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$14.5M–$39.1M after Steam's cut $26.4M–$60.1M before Steam's cut
$29.99
42k reviews
Mostly Positive
CyberpunkStealth
Transistor
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–2.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$9.6M–$25.9M after Steam's cut $17.5M–$39.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
31k reviews
Very Positive
Great SoundtrackFemale Protagonist
VA-11 Hall-A: Cyberpunk Bartender Action
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$6.7M–$17.9M after Steam's cut $12.1M–$27.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
39k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
CyberpunkVisual Novel

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