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How many copies did Crimson Dawn sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 9k–15k
$10k–$28k after Steam's cut $19k–$43k before Steam's cut
from 382 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Crimson Dawn and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Crimson Dawn's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.5M–5.0M
best case 10.1M (Hades)
Games like Crimson Dawn

A typical game among these

≈ 3.5M–5.0M copies

≈ $23.3M–$45.2M after Steam's cut

from ~121k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Hades at ≈ 7.7M–12.5M copies, ≈ $52.9M–$142.2M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 43k reviews in their first month; the range was 17k to 129k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Rogue-like (6 of 8) and Action Roguelike (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action Roguelike + Rogue-lite, priced around $15. The breakout hits carry Singleplayer + Indie + Action Roguelike; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2018 to 2025, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Brotato
2023
Est. copies
≈ 3.0M–4.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$4.1M–$10.9M after Steam's cut $7.4M–$16.8M before Steam's cut
$4.99
119k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Rogue-likeSingleplayer
DAVE THE DIVER
2023
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.6M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$22.2M–$59.8M after Steam's cut $40.4M–$91.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
163k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Pixel GraphicsCasual
Vampire Survivors
2022
Est. copies
≈ 6.6M–10.7M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$9.1M–$24.4M after Steam's cut $16.5M–$37.5M before Steam's cut
$4.99
267k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Action RoguelikeBullet Hell
Dead Cells
2018
Est. copies
≈ 5.6M–9.1M
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$38.4M–$103.2M after Steam's cut $69.8M–$158.8M before Steam's cut
$24.99
184k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AdventureAction Roguelike
Hades
2020
Est. copies
≈ 7.7M–12.5M
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$52.9M–$142.2M after Steam's cut $96.1M–$218.7M before Steam's cut
$24.99
310k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Action RoguelikeRogue-lite
Gunfire Reborn
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$14.2M–$38.1M after Steam's cut $25.7M–$58.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
104k reviews
Very Positive
Hades II
2025
Est. copies
≈ 3.1M–5.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$25.3M–$68.0M after Steam's cut $46.0M–$104.6M before Steam's cut
$29.99
124k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ActionRogue-like
Noita
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.1M–$32.6M after Steam's cut $22.0M–$50.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
89k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PhysicsRogue-like

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