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How many copies did Blacksmith Simulator sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–3k
$8k–$21k after Steam's cut $14k–$33k before Steam's cut
from 73 reviews (Mostly Negative)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Blacksmith Simulator and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Blacksmith Simulator's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 149k–735k
best case 1.7M (Medieval Dynasty)
Games like Blacksmith Simulator

A typical game among these

≈ 149k–735k copies

≈ $1.0M–$6.5M after Steam's cut

from ~8k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Medieval Dynasty at ≈ 1.3M–2.1M copies, ≈ $12.5M–$33.7M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the range was 532 to 20k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Immersive Sim (6 of 8) and Management (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Crafting + Building, priced around $35.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2025, and 3 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Est. copies
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SteamSpy 500k–1M
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Medieval Dynasty
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
6.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.5M–$33.7M after Steam's cut $22.8M–$51.8M before Steam's cut
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Automation - The Car Company Tycoon Game
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Est. copies
≈ 882k–1.4M
2.2x vs typical
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$29.99
18k reviews
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Crossroads Inn Anniversary Edition
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Est. copies
≈ 117k–191k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$484k–$1.3M after Steam's cut $880k–$2.0M before Steam's cut
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4k reviews
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Est. copies
≈ 103k–167k
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Recycling Center Simulator
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Est. copies
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SteamSpy 50k–100k
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Est. copies
≈ 452k–735k
2.2x vs typical
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Est. copies
≈ 244k–397k
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Est. revenue
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Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.