How much revenue did SpearFrog make?

$4k–$11k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did SpearFrog sell?

Q: How many copies did SpearFrog sell?

570 to 927 copies, based on its 23 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 570–927; $4k–$11k after Steam's cut $7k–$16k before Steam's cut; from 23 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid SpearFrog and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including SpearFrog's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 27.0M–85.0M

best case 125.7M (PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS)

Games like SpearFrog

A typical game among these

≈ 27.0M–85.0M copies

≈ $87.0M–$357.3M after Steam's cut

from ~796k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Open World (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS at ≈ 95.8M–155.7M copies.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Open World (3 of 8) and Co-op (2 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Survival + Shooter.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2006 to 2018, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 38 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Fallout 4 2015	Est. copies ≈ 21.0M–34.1M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $115.2M–$309.7M after Steam's cut $209.4M–$476.5M before Steam's cut	$19.99	429k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldPost-apocalyptic
PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS 2017	Est. copies ≈ 95.8M–155.7M 3.5x vs typical SteamSpy 100M–200M	Est. revenue Free	Free	2.8M reviews Mixed	SurvivalShooter
Euro Truck Simulator 2 2012	Est. copies ≈ 59.7M–97.0M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $328.0M–$881.9M after Steam's cut $596.4M–$1356.8M before Steam's cut	$19.99	944k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	DrivingTransportation
Wallpaper Engine 2018	Est. copies ≈ 31.0M–50.3M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut	$4.99	1.0M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	MatureUtilities
Bloons TD 6 2018	Est. copies ≈ 12.0M–19.6M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $46.3M–$124.5M after Steam's cut $84.2M–$191.5M before Steam's cut	$13.99	396k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Tower DefenseStrategy
Garry's Mod 2006	Est. copies ≈ 80.0M–130.1M 1.6x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $219.9M–$591.3M after Steam's cut $399.8M–$909.6M before Steam's cut	$9.99	1.3M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	SandboxModdable
Geometry Dash 2014	Est. copies ≈ 36.2M–58.9M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $49.7M–$133.7M after Steam's cut $90.4M–$205.7M before Steam's cut	$4.99	647k reviews Very Positive	DifficultMusic
Unturned 2017	Est. copies ≈ 19.4M–31.6M SteamSpy 50M–100M	Est. revenue Free	Free	565k reviews Very Positive	Free to PlaySurvival