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How many copies did Astronomics sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 18k–29k
$99k–$266k after Steam's cut $180k–$409k before Steam's cut
from 725 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Astronomics and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Astronomics's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.0M–1.1M
best case 9.9M (RimWorld)
Games like Astronomics

A typical game among these

≈ 1.0M–1.1M copies

≈ $12.4M–$19.7M after Steam's cut

from ~29k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

Best case: RimWorld at ≈ 7.6M–12.3M copies, ≈ $72.7M–$195.4M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 20k reviews in their first month; the range was 11k to 26k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Simulation (6 of 8) and Building (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Building, priced around $22. The breakout hits carry Building + Base-Building + Survival; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2021. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Empyrion - Galactic Survival
2020
Est. copies
≈ 854k–1.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.7M–$12.6M after Steam's cut $8.5M–$19.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
34k reviews
Mostly Positive
Space Engineers
2019
Est. copies
≈ 3.9M–6.3M
4.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.3M–$57.3M after Steam's cut $38.7M–$88.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
135k reviews
Very Positive
SpaceSandbox
Dyson Sphere Program
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2.3M–3.7M
3.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.5M–$33.7M after Steam's cut $22.8M–$51.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
92k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AutomationSpace
X4: Foundations
2018
Est. copies
≈ 920k–1.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.7M–$34.0M after Steam's cut $23.0M–$52.3M before Steam's cut
$49.99
30k reviews
Mostly Positive
Space SimSimulation
RimWorld
2018
Est. copies
≈ 7.6M–12.3M
8.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$72.7M–$195.4M after Steam's cut $132.2M–$300.7M before Steam's cut
$34.99
249k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Colony SimBase-Building
Cell to Singularity - Evolution Never Ends
2021
Est. copies
≈ 698k–1.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
28k reviews
Very Positive
ClickerFree to Play
Oxygen Not Included
2019
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.7M
4.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$28.5M–$76.7M after Steam's cut $51.9M–$118.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
144k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Colony SimBase-Building
ENDLESS Space™ 2
2017
Est. copies
≈ 795k–1.3M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.7M–$23.5M after Steam's cut $15.9M–$36.2M before Steam's cut
$39.99
23k reviews
Very Positive
StrategySpace

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.