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How many copies did GreedFall: The Dying World sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 38k–62k
$524k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $953k–$2.2M before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid GreedFall: The Dying World and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including GreedFall: The Dying World's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 8.4M–22.1M
best case 28.0M (Baldur's Gate 3)
Games like GreedFall: The Dying World

A typical game among these

≈ 8.4M–22.1M copies

≈ $133.6M–$291.8M after Steam's cut

from ~299k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Baldur's Gate 3 at ≈ 21.3M–34.6M copies, ≈ $351.5M–$945.2M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 171k reviews in their first month; the range was 92k to 268k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Fantasy (8 of 8) and Character Customization (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Character Customization + Choices Matter, priced around $60.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2009 to 2025, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Clair Obscur: Expedition 33
2025
Est. copies
≈ 6.9M–11.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$95.2M–$256.1M after Steam's cut $173.2M–$394.0M before Steam's cut
$49.99
279k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Turn-Based CombatStory Rich
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition
2017
Est. copies
≈ 7.1M–11.5M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$87.8M–$236.1M after Steam's cut $159.6M–$363.2M before Steam's cut
$44.99
206k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Tactical RPGRPG
Hogwarts Legacy
2023
Est. copies
≈ 9.3M–15.1M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$153.2M–$412.0M after Steam's cut $278.6M–$633.8M before Steam's cut
$59.99
375k reviews
Very Positive
MagicOpen World
Baldur's Gate 3
2023
Est. copies
≈ 21.3M–34.6M
2.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$351.5M–$945.2M after Steam's cut $639.2M–$1454.1M before Steam's cut
$59.99
859k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RPGCharacter Customization
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion® Game of the Year Edition (2009)
2009
Est. copies
≈ 3.4M–5.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$13.8M–$37.2M after Steam's cut $25.2M–$57.2M before Steam's cut
$14.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RPGOpen World
FINAL FANTASY XIV Online
2014
Est. copies
≈ 4.8M–7.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$26.4M–$71.0M after Steam's cut $48.0M–$109.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
86k reviews
Very Positive
MMORPGRPG
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
2011
Est. copies
≈ 20.1M–32.6M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$110.4M–$296.9M after Steam's cut $200.7M–$456.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
318k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldRPG
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition
2016
Est. copies
≈ 15.8M–25.6M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$173.2M–$465.8M after Steam's cut $315.0M–$716.6M before Steam's cut
$39.99
379k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldRPG

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