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How many copies did Naheulbeuk's Dungeon Master sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 40k–65k
$276k–$743k after Steam's cut $502k–$1.1M before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Naheulbeuk's Dungeon Master and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Naheulbeuk's Dungeon Master's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.5M–10.1M
best case 18.7M (Cities: Skylines)
Games like Naheulbeuk's Dungeon Master

A typical game among these

≈ 3.5M–10.1M copies

≈ $38.3M–$152.5M after Steam's cut

from ~127k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Cities: Skylines at ≈ 14.2M–23.1M copies, ≈ $117.2M–$315.2M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 22k reviews in their first month; the range was 16k to 26k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Simulation (8 of 8) and Sandbox (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with City Builder + Simulation, priced around $30.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Cities: Skylines
2015
Est. copies
≈ 14.2M–23.1M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$117.2M–$315.2M after Steam's cut $213.1M–$484.9M before Steam's cut
$29.99
291k reviews
Very Positive
Dyson Sphere Program
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2.3M–3.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.5M–$33.7M after Steam's cut $22.8M–$51.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
92k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AutomationSpace
Stellaris
2016
Est. copies
≈ 8.2M–13.3M
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$112.6M–$302.6M after Steam's cut $204.7M–$465.6M before Steam's cut
$49.99
197k reviews
Very Positive
Planet Zoo
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.8M–4.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$34.9M–$93.8M after Steam's cut $63.4M–$144.3M before Steam's cut
$44.99
98k reviews
Very Positive
RimWorld
2018
Est. copies
≈ 7.6M–12.3M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$72.7M–$195.4M after Steam's cut $132.2M–$300.7M before Steam's cut
$34.99
249k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Colony SimBase-Building
House Flipper
2018
Est. copies
≈ 3.4M–5.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$23.4M–$63.0M after Steam's cut $42.6M–$96.9M before Steam's cut
$24.99
112k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationDesign & Illustration
Farming Simulator 22
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2.3M–3.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.7M–$34.1M after Steam's cut $23.1M–$52.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
93k reviews
Very Positive
Crusader Kings III
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$48.6M–$130.7M after Steam's cut $88.4M–$201.1M before Steam's cut
$49.99
143k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyMedieval

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