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How many copies did Really Big Sky sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 119k–194k
$164k–$440k after Steam's cut $298k–$678k before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Really Big Sky and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Really Big Sky's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 85k–142k
best case 478k (Nova Drift)
Games like Really Big Sky

A typical game among these

≈ 85k–142k copies

≈ $232k–$639k after Steam's cut

from ~2k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

Best case: Nova Drift at ≈ 364k–592k copies, ≈ $1.8M–$4.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 4k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 12k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Bullet Hell (7 of 8) and Shoot 'Em Up (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Bullet Hell, priced around $14.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2010 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Beat Hazard
2010
Est. copies
≈ 471k–765k
3.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.3M–$3.5M after Steam's cut $2.4M–$5.4M before Steam's cut
$9.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
RhythmMusic-Based Procedural Generation
Time Wasters
2023
Est. copies
≈ 65k–106k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$89k–$240k after Steam's cut $162k–$370k before Steam's cut
$4.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
Action RoguelikeBullet Hell
Returnal™
2023
Est. copies
≈ 276k–448k
4.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$4.6M–$12.2M after Steam's cut $8.3M–$18.8M before Steam's cut
$59.99
11k reviews
Very Positive
ActionBullet Hell
Nova Drift
2024
Est. copies
≈ 364k–592k
5.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.8M–$4.8M after Steam's cut $3.3M–$7.5M before Steam's cut
$17.99
15k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Action RoguelikeArena Shooter
Cyberhunt
2017
Est. copies
≈ 100k–163k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$138k–$370k after Steam's cut $251k–$570k before Steam's cut
$4.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
IndieAction
Ikaruga
2014
Est. copies
≈ 133k–216k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$365k–$982k after Steam's cut $664k–$1.5M before Steam's cut
$9.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
Shoot 'Em UpBullet Hell
Beat Hazard 2
2019
Est. copies
≈ 65k–106k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$340k–$914k after Steam's cut $618k–$1.4M before Steam's cut
$18.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
RhythmMusic-Based Procedural Generation
Bit Blaster XL
2016
Est. copies
≈ 256k–416k
2.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$70k–$187k after Steam's cut $127k–$288k before Steam's cut
$0.99
6k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Bullet HellShoot 'Em Up

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.