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How many copies did Tron: Identity sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 7k–12k
$30k–$81k after Steam's cut $54k–$124k before Steam's cut
from 293 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Tron: Identity and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Tron: Identity's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 202k–410k
best case 5.0M (Disco Elysium - The Final Cut)
Games like Tron: Identity

A typical game among these

≈ 202k–410k copies

≈ $1.2M–$3.2M after Steam's cut

from ~6k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Disco Elysium - The Final Cut at ≈ 3.8M–6.2M copies, ≈ $41.7M–$112.0M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Choices Matter (8 of 8) and Story Rich (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Story Rich + Choices Matter, priced around $40. The breakout hits carry RPG + Isometric + Atmospheric; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2020. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

The Test: Hypothesis Rising
2020
Est. copies
≈ 147k–239k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$80k–$216k after Steam's cut $146k–$332k before Steam's cut
$1.99
6k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SimulationMultiple Endings
Zero Escape: The Nonary Games
2017
Est. copies
≈ 256k–415k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.1M–$5.7M after Steam's cut $3.8M–$8.7M before Steam's cut
$29.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
428: Shibuya Scramble
2018
Est. copies
≈ 121k–197k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$1.7M–$4.5M after Steam's cut $3.0M–$6.9M before Steam's cut
$49.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
Visual NovelAdventure
Batman: The Enemy Within - The Telltale Series
2017
Est. copies
≈ 369k–600k
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.5M–$4.1M after Steam's cut $2.8M–$6.3M before Steam's cut
$14.99
11k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureStory Rich
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut
2019
Est. copies
≈ 3.8M–6.2M
22x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$41.7M–$112.0M after Steam's cut $75.8M–$172.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
132k reviews
Very Positive
SIMULACRA
2017
Est. copies
≈ 161k–262k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$221k–$595k after Steam's cut $402k–$915k before Steam's cut
$4.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorDetective
Zero Escape: Zero Time Dilemma
2016
Est. copies
≈ 205k–334k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$3.0M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
Orwell: Keeping an Eye On You
2016
Est. copies
≈ 648k–1.1M
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.8M–$4.8M after Steam's cut $3.2M–$7.4M before Steam's cut
$9.99
16k reviews
Very Positive
Choices MatterPolitical Sim

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