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How big is United heist?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 50k–81k
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid United heist and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including United heist's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 512k–1.1M
best case 8.8M (It Takes Two)
Games like United heist

A typical game among these

≈ 512k–1.1M copies

≈ $2.5M–$7.6M after Steam's cut

from ~18k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: It Takes Two at ≈ 6.7M–10.9M copies, ≈ $73.7M–$198.3M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 11k reviews in their first month; the range was 4k to 16k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Co-op (7 of 8) and Puzzle (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Co-op + Puzzle, priced around $40. The breakout hits carry Split Screen + Local Co-Op + Story Rich; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2017 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

We Were Here
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.9M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
33k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayCo-op
Trailmakers
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$7.8M–$21.0M after Steam's cut $14.2M–$32.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
39k reviews
Very Positive
SpaceAction
We Were Here Together
2019
Est. copies
≈ 512k–831k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.8M–$4.9M after Steam's cut $3.3M–$7.6M before Steam's cut
$12.99
18k reviews
Very Positive
PuzzleOnline Co-Op
It Takes Two
2021
Est. copies
≈ 6.7M–10.9M
15x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$73.7M–$198.3M after Steam's cut $134.1M–$305.0M before Steam's cut
$39.99
270k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Co-opMultiplayer
Tick Tock: A Tale for Two
2019
Est. copies
≈ 346k–563k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$571k–$1.5M after Steam's cut $1.0M–$2.4M before Steam's cut
$5.99
12k reviews
Very Positive
We Were Here Forever
2022
Est. copies
≈ 471k–765k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.3M–$6.3M after Steam's cut $4.2M–$9.6M before Steam's cut
$17.99
19k reviews
Very Positive
Escape RoomOnline Co-Op
Labyrinthine
2023
Est. copies
≈ 434k–706k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.2M–$3.2M after Steam's cut $2.2M–$4.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
18k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorOnline Co-Op
Strange Brigade
2018
Est. copies
≈ 345k–561k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$4.7M–$12.8M after Steam's cut $8.6M–$19.6M before Steam's cut
$49.99
11k reviews
Very Positive
ActionAdventure

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