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How big is Super Crate Box?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 407k–662k
from 6k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Super Crate Box and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Super Crate Box's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 15k–37k
best case 675k (METAL SLUG 3)
Games like Super Crate Box

A typical game among these

≈ 15k–37k copies

≈ $87k–$257k after Steam's cut

from ~708 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: METAL SLUG 3 at ≈ 514k–836k copies, ≈ $1.1M–$3.0M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 284 reviews in their first month; the range was 27 to 731.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Arcade (8 of 8) and Shooter (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Arcade + Classic, priced around $8. The breakout hits carry Classic + Co-op + Retro; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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METAL SLUG 3
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13x vs typical
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Mixed
IndieArcade
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≈ 28k–45k
1.6x vs typical
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