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How many copies did On Your Tail sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 10k–17k
$57k–$152k after Steam's cut $103k–$234k before Steam's cut
from 415 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid On Your Tail and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including On Your Tail's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 176k–255k
best case 278k (Backpack Hero)
Games like On Your Tail

A typical game among these

≈ 176k–255k copies

≈ $1.0M–$1.9M after Steam's cut

from ~6k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Crafting (2 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Backpack Hero at ≈ 212k–344k copies, ≈ $1.2M–$3.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the range was 175 to 6k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Crafting (2 of 8) and Dating Sim (2 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Replay Value + Turn-Based, priced around $20.
When they shipped
Only 2 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Early AccessChoices Matter

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