How much revenue did BlackForge: A Smithing Adventure make?

$7k–$18k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did BlackForge: A Smithing Adventure sell?

Q: How many copies did BlackForge: A Smithing Adventure sell?

1k to 2k copies, based on its 49 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 1k–2k; $7k–$18k after Steam's cut $12k–$28k before Steam's cut; from 49 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid BlackForge: A Smithing Adventure and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including BlackForge: A Smithing Adventure's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 9k–52k

best case 227k (Google Earth VR)

Games like BlackForge: A Smithing Adventure

A typical game among these

≈ 9k–52k copies

≈ $23k–$398k after Steam's cut

from ~649 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Google Earth VR at ≈ 173k–281k copies.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 63 reviews in their first month; the range was 24 to 486.

Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Exploration (8 of 8) and Simulation (8 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with VR + Open World.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2014 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Aerofly FS 4 Flight Simulator 2022	Est. copies ≈ 36k–58k 2.2x vs typical SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $591k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.4M before Steam's cut	$59.99	1k reviews Very Positive	FlightRacing
Google Earth VR 2016	Est. copies ≈ 173k–281k 6.4x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue Free	Free	4k reviews Very Positive	VRFree to Play
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