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How many copies did Dream Sketcher sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 12k–20k
$41k–$109k after Steam's cut $74k–$168k before Steam's cut
from 496 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Dream Sketcher and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Dream Sketcher's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.1M–10.0M
best case 28.0M (Baldur's Gate 3)
Games like Dream Sketcher

A typical game among these

≈ 4.1M–10.0M copies

≈ $67.4M–$222.3M after Steam's cut

from ~137k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Baldur's Gate 3 at ≈ 21.3M–34.6M copies, ≈ $351.5M–$945.2M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 22k reviews in their first month; the range was 7k to 268k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Character Customization (6 of 8) and Story Rich (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Character Customization + Choices Matter, priced around $60.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Hogwarts Legacy
2023
Est. copies
≈ 9.3M–15.1M
2.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
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MagicOpen World
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut
2019
Est. copies
≈ 3.8M–6.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
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Baldur's Gate 3
2023
Est. copies
≈ 21.3M–34.6M
6.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$351.5M–$945.2M after Steam's cut $639.2M–$1454.1M before Steam's cut
$59.99
859k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RPGCharacter Customization
Grim Dawn
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Est. copies
≈ 4.6M–7.4M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$31.4M–$84.5M after Steam's cut $57.2M–$130.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
110k reviews
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Action RPGHack and Slash
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition
2017
Est. copies
≈ 7.1M–11.5M
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$87.8M–$236.1M after Steam's cut $159.6M–$363.2M before Steam's cut
$44.99
206k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
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Crusader Kings III
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$48.6M–$130.7M after Steam's cut $88.4M–$201.1M before Steam's cut
$49.99
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StrategyMedieval
Mass Effect™ Legendary Edition
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.7M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$27.7M–$74.3M after Steam's cut $50.3M–$114.4M before Steam's cut
$59.99
68k reviews
Very Positive
STAR WARS™: The Old Republic™
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.0M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
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Very Positive
Free to PlayMultiplayer

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