How much revenue did Until Dawn™ make?

$2.2M–$5.8M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Until Dawn™ sell?

Q: How many copies did Until Dawn™ sell?

132k to 214k copies, based on its 5k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 132k–214k; $2.2M–$5.8M after Steam's cut $4.0M–$9.0M before Steam's cut; from 5k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Until Dawn™ and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Until Dawn™'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.2M–3.6M

best case 7.2M (Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition)

Games like Until Dawn™

A typical game among these

≈ 2.2M–3.6M copies

≈ $16.4M–$29.3M after Steam's cut

from ~65k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition at ≈ 5.5M–8.9M copies, ≈ $90.1M–$242.1M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 332 to 72k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Story Rich (5 of 8) and Horror (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World + Co-op, priced around $60. The breakout hits carry Open World + Co-op + Parkour; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2012 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
SteamVR unreleased	Est. copies ≈ 2.2M–3.5M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue Free	Free	87k reviews Very Positive	VRSoftware
OneShot 2016	Est. copies ≈ 2.7M–4.4M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $7.5M–$20.1M after Steam's cut $13.6M–$30.9M before Steam's cut	$9.99	65k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Story RichPixel Graphics
BioShock™ Remastered 2016	Est. copies ≈ 2.7M–4.4M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $14.9M–$40.1M after Steam's cut $27.1M–$61.7M before Steam's cut	$19.99	65k reviews Very Positive	FPS Story Rich
The Walking Dead 2012	Est. copies ≈ 5.1M–8.3M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $21.0M–$56.5M after Steam's cut $38.2M–$86.9M before Steam's cut	$14.99	81k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	ZombiesStory Rich
Senren＊Banka 2020	Est. copies ≈ 923k–1.5M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $8.9M–$23.9M after Steam's cut $16.2M–$36.7M before Steam's cut	$34.99	37k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Visual NovelNSFW
The Walking Dead: The Telltale Definitive Series 2020	Est. copies ≈ 1.2M–1.9M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $16.2M–$43.5M after Steam's cut $29.4M–$66.9M before Steam's cut	$49.99	47k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Choices MatterStory Rich
Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition 2022	Est. copies ≈ 5.5M–8.9M 3.4x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $90.1M–$242.1M after Steam's cut $163.7M–$372.5M before Steam's cut	$59.99	220k reviews Mostly Positive	Open WorldCo-op
The Walking Dead: Season Two 2013	Est. copies ≈ 2.2M–3.5M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $8.9M–$23.8M after Steam's cut $16.1M–$36.7M before Steam's cut	$14.99	34k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	ZombiesAdventure