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How many copies did Red Sea sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 50–81
$69–$184 after Steam's cut $125–$283 before Steam's cut
from 2 reviews (2 user reviews)
Only 2 reviews so far, so that range swings on one or two people. Read it as a hint, not a measurement.

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Red Sea and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Red Sea's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 443k–688k
best case 2.5M (Minion Masters)
Games like Red Sea

A typical game among these

≈ 443k–688k copies

≈ $3.8M–$5.5M after Steam's cut

from ~14k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Simulation (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Minion Masters at ≈ 1.9M–3.1M copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 8k reviews in their first month; the range was 18 to 11k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Simulation (4 of 8) and Real-Time with Pause (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Trading Card Game + Turn-Based Tactics.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2026, and 3 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Terra Invicta
2026
Est. copies
≈ 247k–401k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.7M–$7.3M after Steam's cut $4.9M–$11.2M before Steam's cut
$39.99
10k reviews
Very Positive
StrategySimulation
Door Kickers
2014
Est. copies
≈ 563k–915k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.1M–$8.3M after Steam's cut $5.6M–$12.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
10k reviews
Very Positive
TacticalStrategy
Door Kickers 2: Task Force North
2025
Est. copies
≈ 339k–550k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.3M–$6.3M after Steam's cut $4.2M–$9.6M before Steam's cut
$24.99
14k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
TacticalTop-Down
Minion Masters
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.1M
4.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
65k reviews
Very Positive
PvETrading Card Game
Bad North: Jotunn Edition
2018
Est. copies
≈ 436k–709k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.8M–$4.8M after Steam's cut $3.3M–$7.4M before Steam's cut
$14.99
14k reviews
Very Positive
WargameVikings
Mechabellum
2024
Est. copies
≈ 485k–788k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.0M–$5.4M after Steam's cut $3.6M–$8.3M before Steam's cut
$14.99
20k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyMechs
Dune: Spice Wars
2023
Est. copies
≈ 337k–548k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.2M–$8.7M after Steam's cut $5.9M–$13.4M before Steam's cut
$34.99
14k reviews
Mostly Positive
ManagementSingleplayer
ShemHaMephorash
2023
Est. copies
≈ 893–1k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$2k–$6k after Steam's cut $4k–$9k before Steam's cut
$8.99
36 reviews
Positive
SimulationReal-Time with Pause

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