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How many copies did Someday You'll Return: Director's Cut sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 7k–12k
$41k–$111k after Steam's cut $75k–$170k before Steam's cut
from 302 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Someday You'll Return: Director's Cut and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Someday You'll Return: Director's Cut's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.4M–2.3M
best case 3.5M (Outer Wilds)
Games like Someday You'll Return: Director's Cut

A typical game among these

≈ 1.4M–2.3M copies

≈ $5.8M–$18.1M after Steam's cut

from ~43k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Outer Wilds at ≈ 2.7M–4.4M copies, ≈ $18.5M–$49.7M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Story Rich (7 of 8) and Mystery (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Story Rich + Mystery, priced around $22. The breakout hits carry Exploration + Adventure + Atmospheric; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Firewatch
2016
Est. copies
≈ 4.2M–6.8M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$22.9M–$61.5M after Steam's cut $41.6M–$94.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
100k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureAtmospheric
Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.9M–$24.0M after Steam's cut $16.2M–$36.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
39k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AnimeVisual Novel
What Remains of Edith Finch
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–3.0M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$10.1M–$27.2M after Steam's cut $18.4M–$41.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Story RichAtmospheric
Return of the Obra Dinn
2018
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.7M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$5.9M–$15.9M after Steam's cut $10.7M–$24.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
35k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DetectiveMystery
Inside the Backrooms
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.2M–$6.0M after Steam's cut $4.1M–$9.2M before Steam's cut
$6.99
47k reviews
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HorrorMultiplayer
Unheard - Voices of Crime
2019
Est. copies
≈ 981k–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.9M–$5.1M after Steam's cut $3.4M–$7.8M before Steam's cut
$6.99
34k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DetectivePuzzle
Outer Wilds
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.4M
2.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$18.5M–$49.7M after Steam's cut $33.6M–$76.4M before Steam's cut
$24.99
108k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ExplorationSpace
Alan Wake
2012
Est. copies
≈ 3.8M–6.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$15.7M–$42.1M after Steam's cut $28.5M–$64.7M before Steam's cut
$14.99
60k reviews
Very Positive
ActionHorror

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