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How many copies did Sunrider 4: The Captain's Return sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 7k–12k
$60k–$161k after Steam's cut $109k–$248k before Steam's cut
from 293 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Sunrider 4: The Captain's Return and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Sunrider 4: The Captain's Return's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 131k–290k
best case 322k (TROUBLESHOOTER: Abandoned Children)
Games like Sunrider 4: The Captain's Return

A typical game among these

≈ 131k–290k copies

≈ $2.1M–$3.0M after Steam's cut

from ~5k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: TROUBLESHOOTER: Abandoned Children at ≈ 246k–399k copies, ≈ $1.7M–$4.5M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 122 to 3k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Turn-Based Tactics (7 of 8) and JRPG (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with CRPG + Tactical RPG, priced around $25.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Banner of the Maid
2019
Est. copies
≈ 241k–391k
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$3.0M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.7M before Steam's cut
$16.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyTurn-Based Strategy
Disgaea PC
2016
Est. copies
≈ 201k–326k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$3.0M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
Strategy RPGJRPG
TRIANGLE STRATEGY
2022
Est. copies
≈ 94k–152k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$1.5M–$4.2M after Steam's cut $2.8M–$6.4M before Steam's cut
$59.99
4k reviews
Mostly Positive
Turn-Based TacticsStrategy RPG
Ash of Gods: Redemption
2018
Est. copies
≈ 106k–172k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$726k–$2.0M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$3.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
3k reviews
Mostly Positive
RPGSingleplayer
TROUBLESHOOTER: Abandoned Children
2020
Est. copies
≈ 246k–399k
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.7M–$4.5M after Steam's cut $3.1M–$7.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
10k reviews
Very Positive
CRPGTactical RPG
Super Robot Wars 30
2021
Est. copies
≈ 162k–263k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.7M–$7.2M after Steam's cut $4.8M–$11.0M before Steam's cut
$59.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyRPG
Digimon Survive
2022
Est. copies
≈ 93k–151k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$1.5M–$4.1M after Steam's cut $2.8M–$6.3M before Steam's cut
$59.99
4k reviews
Mostly Positive
Visual NovelTactical RPG
Utawarerumono: Mask of Truth
2020
Est. copies
≈ 38k–61k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$414k–$1.1M after Steam's cut $752k–$1.7M before Steam's cut
$39.99
2k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RPGStrategy

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