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How many copies did Alien Agent X sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–3k
$2k–$5k after Steam's cut $4k–$8k before Steam's cut
from 73 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Alien Agent X and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Alien Agent X's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.1M–5.6M
best case 40.7M (Wallpaper Engine)
Games like Alien Agent X

A typical game among these

≈ 1.1M–5.6M copies

≈ $3.2M–$22.0M after Steam's cut

from ~59k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Wallpaper Engine at ≈ 31.0M–50.3M copies, ≈ $42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 8k reviews in their first month; the range was 5k to 12k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Anime (6 of 8) and First-Person (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Mature + Utilities, priced around $5.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

VRChat
2017
Est. copies
≈ 9.3M–15.1M
4.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
269k reviews
Mostly Positive
VRFree to Play
Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 31.0M–50.3M
17x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut
$4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities
Dota Underlords
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.3M
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
91k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayStrategy
Little Witch Nobeta
2022
Est. copies
≈ 249k–405k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.7M–$4.6M after Steam's cut $3.1M–$7.1M before Steam's cut
$24.99
10k reviews
Very Positive
CuteFunny
Mirror
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$1.4M–$3.8M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.8M before Steam's cut
$1.99
84k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Sexual ContentNudity
Crush Crush
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
29k reviews
Very Positive
Sexual ContentNudity
DJMAX RESPECT V
2020
Est. copies
≈ 867k–1.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$11.9M–$32.1M after Steam's cut $21.7M–$49.3M before Steam's cut
$49.99
35k reviews
Very Positive
RhythmMusic
Paint the Town Red
2021
Est. copies
≈ 810k–1.3M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.5M–$12.0M after Steam's cut $8.1M–$18.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
33k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
GoreBlood

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.