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How many copies did LOST PLANET® 3 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 248k–402k
$1.7M–$4.6M after Steam's cut $3.1M–$7.0M before Steam's cut
from 4k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid LOST PLANET® 3 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including LOST PLANET® 3's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.1M–2.8M
best case 37.9M (HELLDIVERS™ 2)
Games like LOST PLANET® 3

A typical game among these

≈ 2.1M–2.8M copies

≈ $25.0M–$50.7M after Steam's cut

from ~65k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: HELLDIVERS™ 2 at ≈ 28.9M–46.9M copies, ≈ $317.6M–$854.0M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 11k reviews in their first month; the range was 3k to 251k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Third-Person Shooter (7 of 8) and Sci-fi (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Third-Person Shooter + Shooter, priced around $40. The breakout hits carry Online Co-Op + PvE + Co-op; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2009 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

STAR WARS™ Battlefront II (Classic, 2005)
2009
Est. copies
≈ 3.4M–5.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$9.4M–$25.4M after Steam's cut $17.1M–$39.0M before Steam's cut
$9.99
54k reviews
Very Positive
ActionMultiplayer
Dead Space
2023
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–2.9M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$29.2M–$78.4M after Steam's cut $53.0M–$120.7M before Steam's cut
$59.99
71k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorThird-Person Shooter
OUTRIDERS
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$8.4M–$22.5M after Steam's cut $15.2M–$34.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
61k reviews
Mixed
Looter ShooterRPG
CONTROL Ultimate Edition
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$17.7M–$47.7M after Steam's cut $32.2M–$73.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
65k reviews
Very Positive
ActionSupernatural
STAR WARS™ Battlefront™ II
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.5M–4.0M
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$27.3M–$73.4M after Steam's cut $49.7M–$113.0M before Steam's cut
$39.99
100k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerShooter
Mass Effect™ Legendary Edition
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.7M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$27.7M–$74.3M after Steam's cut $50.3M–$114.4M before Steam's cut
$59.99
68k reviews
Very Positive
HELLDIVERS™ 2
2024
Est. copies
≈ 28.9M–46.9M
18x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$317.6M–$854.0M after Steam's cut $577.5M–$1313.8M before Steam's cut
$39.99
1.2M reviews
Mostly Positive
Online Co-OpPvE
Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$18.6M–$50.0M after Steam's cut $33.8M–$77.0M before Steam's cut
$59.99
45k reviews
Very Positive
SingleplayerStory Rich

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