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How many copies did The Grindstone sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 818–1k
$4k–$12k after Steam's cut $8k–$19k before Steam's cut
from 33 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Grindstone and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Grindstone's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 129k–180k
best case 4.6M (Persona 5 Royal)
Games like The Grindstone

A typical game among these

≈ 129k–180k copies

≈ $956k–$2.4M after Steam's cut

from ~5k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

Best case: Persona 5 Royal at ≈ 3.5M–5.7M copies, ≈ $57.7M–$155.1M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 11k reviews in their first month; the range was 576 to 19k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share JRPG (8 of 8) and Story Rich (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with JRPG + Story Rich, priced around $60. The breakout hits carry Story Rich + Great Soundtrack; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
Only 2 of the 7 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

FINAL FANTASY VII
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5.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
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JRPGRPG
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12x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
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$26.5M–$71.2M after Steam's cut $48.2M–$109.6M before Steam's cut
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Metaphor: ReFantazio
2024
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.7M
8.2x vs typical
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$20.7M–$55.7M after Steam's cut $37.7M–$85.7M before Steam's cut
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RPGJRPG
Persona 5 Royal
2022
Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.7M
27x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$57.7M–$155.1M after Steam's cut $104.9M–$238.5M before Steam's cut
$59.99
141k reviews
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Crystal Project
2022
Est. copies
≈ 64k–105k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
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Very Positive
RPGAdventure
Persona 3 Portable
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Est. copies
≈ 143k–233k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$789k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
6k reviews
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Persona 4 Golden
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.5M
17x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.0M–$32.1M after Steam's cut $21.7M–$49.5M before Steam's cut
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Shin Megami Tensei III Nocturne HD Remaster
2021
Est. copies
≈ 131k–214k
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Est. revenue
$1.8M–$4.9M after Steam's cut $3.3M–$7.5M before Steam's cut
$49.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
JRPGRPG

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