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How many copies did Kvark sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 12k–20k
$69k–$185k after Steam's cut $125k–$284k before Steam's cut
from 504 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Kvark and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Kvark's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.5M–3.4M
best case 65.2M (War Thunder)
Games like Kvark

A typical game among these

≈ 2.5M–3.4M copies

≈ $9.5M–$29.3M after Steam's cut

from ~59k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is FPS (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: War Thunder at ≈ 49.7M–80.7M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share FPS (4 of 8) and Shooter (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Simulation + Vehicular Combat. The breakout hits carry Free to Play + Vehicular Combat + World War II; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2010 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Soundpad
2017
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.9M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$4.9M–$13.3M after Steam's cut $9.0M–$20.5M before Steam's cut
$4.99
105k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
UtilitiesAudio Production
War Thunder
2013
Est. copies
≈ 49.7M–80.7M
13x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
786k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlaySimulation
UNO
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$5.1M–$13.8M after Steam's cut $9.3M–$21.2M before Steam's cut
$9.99
54k reviews
Mostly Positive
Card GameMultiplayer
Arma Reforger
2023
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.3M
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$15.9M–$42.7M after Steam's cut $28.9M–$65.8M before Steam's cut
$39.99
58k reviews
Mostly Positive
MilitarySimulation
Call of Duty®: Black Ops
2010
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$30.1M–$81.0M after Steam's cut $54.8M–$124.6M before Steam's cut
$39.99
43k reviews
Very Positive
ActionFPS
SteamVR
unreleased
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
87k reviews
Very Positive
VRSoftware
Rising Storm 2: Vietnam
2017
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$14.0M–$37.7M after Steam's cut $25.5M–$58.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
59k reviews
Very Positive
FPSWargame
Rising Storm 2: Vietnam
2017
Est. copies
≈ 413–671
too small to compare
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3k–$8k after Steam's cut $5k–$12k before Steam's cut
$24.99
12 reviews
Positive
FPSWar

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