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How many copies did bugTDX sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 670–1k
$551–$1k after Steam's cut $1k–$2k before Steam's cut
from 27 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid bugTDX and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including bugTDX's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1k–18k
best case 572k (Bad North: Jotunn Edition)
Games like bugTDX

A typical game among these

≈ 1k–18k copies

≈ $3k–$51k after Steam's cut

from ~60 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Bad North: Jotunn Edition at ≈ 436k–709k copies, ≈ $1.8M–$4.8M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 42 reviews in their first month; the range was 4 to 866.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Tower Defense (6 of 8) and Rogue-lite (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Wargame + Vikings, priced around $15.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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DeckbuildingStrategy
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Tower DefenseAuto Battler
Towerful Defense: A Rogue TD
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≈ 6k–10k
4.1x vs typical
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Action RoguelikeAuto Battler
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Est. copies
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241x vs typical
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WargameVikings
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25x vs typical
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Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.