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How many copies did Eldegarde sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 145k–236k
from 6k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Eldegarde and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Eldegarde's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 295k–4.6M
best case 37.9M (HELLDIVERS™ 2)
Games like Eldegarde

A typical game among these

≈ 295k–4.6M copies

≈ $2.1M–$101.7M after Steam's cut

from ~34k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: HELLDIVERS™ 2 at ≈ 28.9M–46.9M copies, ≈ $317.6M–$854.0M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 21k reviews in their first month; the range was 1k to 251k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Shooter (7 of 8) and Extraction Shooter (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Third-Person Shooter + Shooter, priced around $40.
When they shipped
Only 3 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Deceive Inc.
2023
Est. copies
≈ 195k–318k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$2.9M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
Social DeductionHeist
Hunt: Showdown 1896
2019
Est. copies
≈ 8.0M–13.1M
8.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$66.3M–$178.3M after Steam's cut $120.6M–$274.4M before Steam's cut
$29.99
279k reviews
Mostly Positive
Open WorldExtraction Shooter
Gray Zone Warfare
2024
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.2M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.6M–$58.1M after Steam's cut $39.3M–$89.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
79k reviews
Mostly Positive
Early AccessOnline Co-Op
The Day Before
2023
Est. copies
≈ 575k–934k
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
23k reviews
Overwhelmingly Negative
MultiplayerZombies
HELLDIVERS™ 2
2024
Est. copies
≈ 28.9M–46.9M
34x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$317.6M–$854.0M after Steam's cut $577.5M–$1313.8M before Steam's cut
$39.99
1.2M reviews
Mostly Positive
Online Co-OpPvE
The Cycle: Frontier
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
45k reviews
Mixed
Extraction ShooterSurvival
Incursion Red River
2024
Est. copies
≈ 235k–382k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$1.4M–$3.8M after Steam's cut $2.6M–$5.9M before Steam's cut
$21.99
9k reviews
Mostly Positive
Extraction ShooterRealistic
Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six® Extraction
2023
Est. copies
≈ 79k–128k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$869k–$2.3M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.6M before Steam's cut
$39.99
3k reviews
Mixed
FPSAction

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