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How many copies did Agarest: Generations of War sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 105k–170k
$431k–$1.2M after Steam's cut $784k–$1.8M before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Agarest: Generations of War and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Agarest: Generations of War's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 297k–544k
best case 27.3M (The Forest)
Games like Agarest: Generations of War

A typical game among these

≈ 297k–544k copies

≈ $4.0M–$5.7M after Steam's cut

from ~8k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: The Forest at ≈ 20.8M–33.7M copies, ≈ $114.2M–$306.9M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share JRPG (5 of 8) and Anime (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World Survival Craft + Survival, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Open World Survival Craft + Survival + Open World; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

The Forest
2018
Est. copies
≈ 20.8M–33.7M
82x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$114.2M–$306.9M after Steam's cut $207.5M–$472.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
683k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Super Robot Wars 30
2021
Est. copies
≈ 162k–263k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.7M–$7.2M after Steam's cut $4.8M–$11.0M before Steam's cut
$59.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyRPG
TROUBLESHOOTER: Abandoned Children
2020
Est. copies
≈ 246k–399k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.7M–$4.5M after Steam's cut $3.1M–$7.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
10k reviews
Very Positive
CRPGTactical RPG
The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky
2014
Est. copies
≈ 583k–947k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.2M–$8.6M after Steam's cut $5.8M–$13.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
10k reviews
Very Positive
Valkyria Chronicles™
2014
Est. copies
≈ 746k–1.2M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$4.1M–$11.0M after Steam's cut $7.5M–$17.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
AnimeStrategy
Valkyria Chronicles 4 Complete Edition
2018
Est. copies
≈ 216k–351k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.0M–$8.0M after Steam's cut $5.4M–$12.3M before Steam's cut
$49.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyAnime
SD GUNDAM G GENERATION CROSS RAYS
2019
Est. copies
≈ 236k–384k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.6M–$7.0M after Steam's cut $4.7M–$10.7M before Steam's cut
$39.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
MechsTactical RPG
Banner of the Maid
2019
Est. copies
≈ 241k–391k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$3.0M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.7M before Steam's cut
$16.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyTurn-Based Strategy

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