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How many copies did SteamWorld Heist II sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 62k–101k
$511k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $929k–$2.1M before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid SteamWorld Heist II and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including SteamWorld Heist II's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 746k–852k
best case 9.3M (Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition)
Games like SteamWorld Heist II

A typical game among these

≈ 746k–852k copies

≈ $2.9M–$9.4M after Steam's cut

from ~16k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Turn-Based Tactics (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition at ≈ 7.1M–11.5M copies, ≈ $87.8M–$236.1M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Turn-Based Tactics (4 of 8) and Exploration (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Tactical RPG + Turn-Based Strategy, priced around $45. The breakout hits carry Tactical RPG + Fantasy + Character Customization; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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13x vs typical
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2DChoose Your Own Adventure
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Turn-Based TacticsExploration

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