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How many copies did S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Shadow of Chornobyl - Enhanced Edition sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 217k–353k
$1.2M–$3.2M after Steam's cut $2.2M–$4.9M before Steam's cut
from 9k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Shadow of Chornobyl - Enhanced Edition and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Shadow of Chornobyl - Enhanced Edition's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5.1M–16.2M
best case 105.1M (Garry's Mod)
Games like S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Shadow of Chornobyl - Enhanced Edition

A typical game among these

≈ 5.1M–16.2M copies

≈ $62.8M–$184.6M after Steam's cut

from ~165k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Garry's Mod at ≈ 80.0M–130.1M copies, ≈ $219.9M–$591.3M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 40k reviews in their first month; the range was 14k to 88k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share FPS (6 of 8) and Shooter (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Sandbox + Moddable, priced around $10.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2006 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl
2024
Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$57.8M–$155.4M after Steam's cut $105.1M–$239.2M before Steam's cut
$59.99
141k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldFPS
Metro Exodus
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.4M–5.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$27.9M–$74.9M after Steam's cut $50.7M–$115.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
136k reviews
Very Positive
Post-apocalypticFPS
Fallout 4
2015
Est. copies
≈ 21.0M–34.1M
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$115.2M–$309.7M after Steam's cut $209.4M–$476.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
429k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldPost-apocalyptic
Garry's Mod
2006
Est. copies
≈ 80.0M–130.1M
7.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$219.9M–$591.3M after Steam's cut $399.8M–$909.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
1.3M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxModdable
Insurgency: Sandstorm
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$33.4M–$89.9M after Steam's cut $60.8M–$138.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
133k reviews
Very Positive
FPSRealistic
Far Cry® 5
2018
Est. copies
≈ 5.8M–9.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$95.1M–$255.6M after Steam's cut $172.9M–$393.3M before Steam's cut
$59.99
190k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction-Adventure
Far Cry® 4
2014
Est. copies
≈ 4.2M–6.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$34.3M–$92.1M after Steam's cut $62.3M–$141.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
74k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
Deep Rock Galactic
2020
Est. copies
≈ 9.4M–15.3M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$77.8M–$209.2M after Steam's cut $141.5M–$321.9M before Steam's cut
$29.99
380k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DwarfCo-op

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