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How many copies did 98xx sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 12k–20k
$10k–$27k after Steam's cut $18k–$41k before Steam's cut
from 488 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid 98xx and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including 98xx's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 11.4M–18.7M
best case 27.3M (The Forest)
Games like 98xx

A typical game among these

≈ 11.4M–18.7M copies

≈ $143.5M–$224.3M after Steam's cut

from ~321k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Open World (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: The Forest at ≈ 20.8M–33.7M copies, ≈ $114.2M–$306.9M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 178k reviews in their first month; the range was 432 to 327k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Open World (4 of 8) and Survival (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World Survival Craft + Survival, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

SCP: Secret Laboratory
2017
Est. copies
≈ 8.1M–13.1M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
235k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayMultiplayer
Cities: Skylines
2015
Est. copies
≈ 14.2M–23.1M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$117.2M–$315.2M after Steam's cut $213.1M–$484.9M before Steam's cut
$29.99
291k reviews
Very Positive
Cricket 22
2021
Est. copies
≈ 44k–71k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$539k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $980k–$2.2M before Steam's cut
$44.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationSports
Sons Of The Forest
2024
Est. copies
≈ 8.0M–12.9M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$65.7M–$176.6M after Steam's cut $119.4M–$271.7M before Steam's cut
$29.99
321k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalOpen World
People Playground
2019
Est. copies
≈ 9.2M–15.0M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$25.4M–$68.2M after Steam's cut $46.1M–$104.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
321k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxGore
DayZ
2018
Est. copies
≈ 14.3M–23.2M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$196.4M–$527.9M after Steam's cut $357.0M–$812.2M before Steam's cut
$49.99
470k reviews
Mostly Positive
SurvivalOpen World
The Forest
2018
Est. copies
≈ 20.8M–33.7M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$114.2M–$306.9M after Steam's cut $207.5M–$472.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
683k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
7 Days to Die
2024
Est. copies
≈ 9.9M–16.2M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$123.1M–$331.0M after Steam's cut $223.8M–$509.2M before Steam's cut
$44.99
401k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalZombies

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