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How many copies did Alien Protection sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 298–484
$409–$1k after Steam's cut $744–$2k before Steam's cut
from 12 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Alien Protection and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Alien Protection's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3k–21k
best case 49k (Talented)
Games like Alien Protection

A typical game among these

≈ 3k–21k copies

≈ $8k–$92k after Steam's cut

from ~206 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

1 of the 8 similar games is a hit.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Arcade (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Talented at ≈ 37k–61k copies, ≈ $62k–$166k after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 104 reviews in their first month; the range was 10 to 866.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Arcade (4 of 8) and Sandbox (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action Roguelike + Rogue-lite, priced around $6.
When they shipped
5 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. You'd be launching into a busy stretch.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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ActionCasual

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