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How many copies did DYING UNDER NIGHTFALL sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 149–242
$123–$330 after Steam's cut $223–$507 before Steam's cut
from 6 reviews (6 user reviews)
Only 6 reviews so far, so that range swings on one or two people. Read it as a hint, not a measurement.

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid DYING UNDER NIGHTFALL and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including DYING UNDER NIGHTFALL's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 211k–349k
best case 5.9M (Celeste)
Games like DYING UNDER NIGHTFALL

A typical game among these

≈ 211k–349k copies

≈ $1.8M–$2.7M after Steam's cut

from ~10k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Celeste at ≈ 4.5M–7.4M copies, ≈ $24.9M–$67.0M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 454 to 3k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share 2D Platformer (7 of 8) and Female Protagonist (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Precision Platformer + Platformer, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Precision Platformer + Difficult + Great Soundtrack; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Momodora: Reverie Under The Moonlight
2016
Est. copies
≈ 498k–809k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.4M–$3.7M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.7M before Steam's cut
$9.99
12k reviews
Very Positive
Metroidvania2D Platformer
Celeste
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.5M–7.4M
14x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.9M–$67.0M after Steam's cut $45.3M–$103.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
149k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
20XX
2017
Est. copies
≈ 158k–256k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$650k–$1.7M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.7M before Steam's cut
$14.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
PlatformerAction Roguelike
Planet of Lana
2023
Est. copies
≈ 266k–432k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.5M–$3.9M after Steam's cut $2.7M–$6.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
11k reviews
Very Positive
ActionFemale Protagonist
Afterimage
2023
Est. copies
≈ 260k–423k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.8M–$4.8M after Steam's cut $3.3M–$7.4M before Steam's cut
$24.99
10k reviews
Mostly Positive
MetroidvaniaFemale Protagonist
Neva
2024
Est. copies
≈ 266k–432k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$1.5M–$3.9M after Steam's cut $2.7M–$6.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
11k reviews
Very Positive
AdventurePlatformer
ANNO: Mutationem
2022
Est. copies
≈ 164k–267k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$3.0M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.7M before Steam's cut
$24.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
RPGPixel Graphics
The Pedestrian
2020
Est. copies
≈ 152k–247k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$835k–$2.2M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
6k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PuzzlePuzzle-Platformer

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