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How big is One-armed robber?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 1.3M–2.2M
from 54k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid One-armed robber and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including One-armed robber's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 82k–2.0M
best case 56.0M (PAYDAY 2)
Games like One-armed robber

A typical game among these

≈ 82k–2.0M copies

≈ $587k–$12.5M after Steam's cut

from ~14k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: PAYDAY 2 at ≈ 42.7M–69.3M copies, ≈ $117.2M–$315.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 415 to 4k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Crime (7 of 8) and Heist (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Co-op + FPS, priced around $10.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2011 to 2025, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Thief Simulator
2018
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
2.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.7M–$17.9M after Steam's cut $12.1M–$27.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
40k reviews
Very Positive
Crime Simulator: Playgrounds
2024
Est. copies
≈ 54k–88k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$30k–$80k after Steam's cut $54k–$122k before Steam's cut
$1.99
2k reviews
Mostly Positive
ActionMultiplayer
Drug Dealer Simulator
2020
Est. copies
≈ 522k–848k
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.9M–$7.7M after Steam's cut $5.2M–$11.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
21k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationCrime
PAYDAY 2
2013
Est. copies
≈ 42.7M–69.3M
48x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$117.2M–$315.1M after Steam's cut $213.1M–$484.7M before Steam's cut
$9.99
675k reviews
Very Positive
Co-opAction
Thief Simulator VR
2020
Est. copies
≈ 37k–59k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$201k–$540k after Steam's cut $365k–$830k before Steam's cut
$19.99
1k reviews
Mixed
The Break-In
2025
Est. copies
≈ 65k–106k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$357k–$961k after Steam's cut $650k–$1.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
VRMultiplayer
PAYDAY™ The Heist
2011
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.2M
2.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$7.1M–$19.1M after Steam's cut $12.9M–$29.5M before Steam's cut
$9.99
41k reviews
Very Positive
FPSAction
Thief Simulator 2
2023
Est. copies
≈ 170k–276k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$934k–$2.5M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
7k reviews
Very Positive

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