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How many copies did Hitler is my crush sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 60k–97k
$16k–$44k after Steam's cut $30k–$67k before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Hitler is my crush and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Hitler is my crush's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 6.3M–9.3M
best case 47.6M (Geometry Dash)
Games like Hitler is my crush

A typical game among these

≈ 6.3M–9.3M copies

≈ $48.4M–$70.0M after Steam's cut

from ~145k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Platformer (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Geometry Dash at ≈ 36.2M–58.9M copies, ≈ $49.7M–$133.7M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Platformer (4 of 8) and Co-op (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Music + Level Editor, priced around $10. The breakout hits carry Singleplayer + Difficult + Great Soundtrack; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2018, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 38 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

BattleBlock Theater®
2014
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$16.8M–$45.3M after Steam's cut $30.6M–$69.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
73k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Celeste
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.5M–7.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.9M–$67.0M after Steam's cut $45.3M–$103.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
149k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Geometry Dash
2014
Est. copies
≈ 36.2M–58.9M
4.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$49.7M–$133.7M after Steam's cut $90.4M–$205.7M before Steam's cut
$4.99
647k reviews
Very Positive
DifficultMusic
Castle Crashers®
2012
Est. copies
≈ 8.9M–14.5M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$36.7M–$98.7M after Steam's cut $66.8M–$151.9M before Steam's cut
$14.99
141k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
2DOnline Co-Op
Dead Cells
2018
Est. copies
≈ 5.6M–9.1M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$38.4M–$103.2M after Steam's cut $69.8M–$158.8M before Steam's cut
$24.99
184k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AdventureAction Roguelike
Hollow Knight
2017
Est. copies
≈ 19.5M–31.6M
3.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$80.3M–$215.8M after Steam's cut $145.9M–$332.0M before Steam's cut
$14.99
566k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
This War of Mine
2014
Est. copies
≈ 5.5M–8.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$30.1M–$81.0M after Steam's cut $54.8M–$124.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
98k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalWar
Cuphead
2017
Est. copies
≈ 7.6M–12.4M
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$41.9M–$112.7M after Steam's cut $76.2M–$173.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
222k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DifficultCartoon

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