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How many copies did Shell Runner sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–4k
$10k–$26k after Steam's cut $18k–$41k before Steam's cut
from 96 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Shell Runner and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Shell Runner's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 18k–749k
best case 5.3M (Tom Clancy’s The Division™)
Games like Shell Runner

A typical game among these

≈ 18k–749k copies

≈ $53k–$3.4M after Steam's cut

from ~2k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

4 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Tom Clancy’s The Division™ at ≈ 4.0M–6.6M copies, ≈ $33.2M–$89.4M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 599 reviews in their first month; the range was 8 to 21k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Extraction Shooter (6 of 8) and Looter Shooter (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Looter Shooter, priced around $30.
When they shipped
5 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. You'd be launching into a busy stretch.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Tom Clancy’s The Division™
2016
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.6M
44x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$33.2M–$89.4M after Steam's cut $60.5M–$137.5M before Steam's cut
$29.99
97k reviews
Mostly Positive
Open WorldLooter Shooter
ZERO Sievert
2024
Est. copies
≈ 387k–628k
7.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.1M–$5.7M after Steam's cut $3.9M–$8.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
16k reviews
Very Positive
Extraction ShooterSurvival
The Cycle: Frontier
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
20x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
45k reviews
Mixed
Extraction ShooterSurvival
Blood Running
2025
Est. copies
≈ 5k–8k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$24k–$64k after Steam's cut $43k–$99k before Steam's cut
$16.99
206 reviews
Mixed
Extraction ShooterSurvival
SYNDUALITY Echo of Ada
2025
Est. copies
≈ 93k–151k
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$1.0M–$2.7M after Steam's cut $1.9M–$4.2M before Steam's cut
$39.99
4k reviews
Mixed
MechsLooter Shooter
No Escape from Madness
2025
Est. copies
≈ 7k–11k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$23k–$61k after Steam's cut $41k–$94k before Steam's cut
$11.99
277 reviews
Mixed
Extraction ShooterBase-Building
A Twisted Path to Renown
2024
Est. copies
≈ 17k–27k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
676 reviews
Mixed
Extraction ShooterWestern
Last Group Out
2022
Est. copies
≈ 16k–25k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$43k–$115k after Steam's cut $78k–$177k before Steam's cut
$9.99
628 reviews
Very Positive
ActionShooter

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