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How many copies did Arcane Blast sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1k–2k
$3k–$9k after Steam's cut $6k–$14k before Steam's cut
from 50 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Arcane Blast and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Arcane Blast's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 17k–65k
best case 11.5M (Risk of Rain 2)
Games like Arcane Blast

A typical game among these

≈ 17k–65k copies

≈ $102k–$287k after Steam's cut

from ~1k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

5 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Risk of Rain 2 at ≈ 8.8M–14.2M copies, ≈ $60.2M–$161.9M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 851 reviews in their first month; the range was 187 to 103k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Action Roguelike (8 of 8) and Rogue-like (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Third-Person Shooter + Action Roguelike, priced around $25. The breakout hits carry Multiplayer + Looter Shooter + Co-op; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
5 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. You'd be launching into a busy stretch.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Risk of Rain 2
2020
Est. copies
≈ 8.8M–14.2M
303x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$60.2M–$161.9M after Steam's cut $109.5M–$249.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
353k reviews
Very Positive
Third-Person ShooterAction Roguelike
Fictorum
2017
Est. copies
≈ 40k–65k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$110k–$296k after Steam's cut $200k–$455k before Steam's cut
$9.99
1k reviews
Mostly Positive
Action RoguelikeMagic
TOP DOG
2025
Est. copies
≈ 7k–11k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$18k–$49k after Steam's cut $33k–$76k before Steam's cut
$9.99
268 reviews
Very Positive
FlightShoot 'Em Up
Vellum
2025
Est. copies
≈ 37k–60k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$201k–$542k after Steam's cut $366k–$833k before Steam's cut
$19.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
Action RoguelikeThird-Person Shooter
Atomic Picnic
2024
Est. copies
≈ 14k–23k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$77k–$207k after Steam's cut $140k–$318k before Steam's cut
$19.99
564 reviews
Mostly Positive
Rogue-likeAction Roguelike
Black Gunner Wukong
2024
Est. copies
≈ 12k–20k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$33k–$89k after Steam's cut $60k–$137k before Steam's cut
$9.99
487 reviews
Very Positive
Shoot 'Em UpAction Roguelike
What the Fog
2024
Est. copies
≈ 59k–96k
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$81k–$219k after Steam's cut $148k–$336k before Steam's cut
$4.99
2k reviews
Mostly Positive
Rogue-liteCartoony
Returnal™
2023
Est. copies
≈ 276k–448k
9.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$4.6M–$12.2M after Steam's cut $8.3M–$18.8M before Steam's cut
$59.99
11k reviews
Very Positive
ActionBullet Hell

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