How much revenue did The Path make?

$184k–$494k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did The Path sell?

Q: How many copies did The Path sell?

67k to 109k copies, based on its 1k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 67k–109k; $184k–$494k after Steam's cut $334k–$760k before Steam's cut; from 1k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Path and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Path's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.8M–9.7M

best case 125.7M (PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS)

Games like The Path

A typical game among these

≈ 4.8M–9.7M copies

≈ $41.2M–$63.7M after Steam's cut

from ~122k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Survival (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS at ≈ 95.8M–155.7M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Survival (4 of 8) and First-Person (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Survival + Shooter. The breakout hits carry Shooter + Battle Royale + FPS; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2017. That says more about which games were found than about the market.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 43 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Assetto Corsa 2014	Est. copies ≈ 9.8M–15.9M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $53.8M–$144.6M after Steam's cut $97.8M–$222.5M before Steam's cut	$19.99	175k reviews Very Positive	RacingAutomobile Sim
Hellblade: Senua's Sacrifice 2017	Est. copies ≈ 2.6M–4.3M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $21.7M–$58.5M after Steam's cut $39.5M–$90.0M before Steam's cut	$29.99	77k reviews Very Positive	AtmosphericPsychological
Firewatch 2016	Est. copies ≈ 4.2M–6.8M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $22.9M–$61.5M after Steam's cut $41.6M–$94.6M before Steam's cut	$19.99	100k reviews Very Positive	AdventureAtmospheric
The Isle 2015	Est. copies ≈ 5.9M–9.6M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $32.6M–$87.7M after Steam's cut $59.3M–$134.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	122k reviews Very Positive	DinosaursSurvival
PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS 2017	Est. copies ≈ 95.8M–155.7M 23x vs typical SteamSpy 100M–200M	Est. revenue Free	Free	2.8M reviews Mixed	SurvivalShooter
The Long Dark 2017	Est. copies ≈ 4.3M–6.9M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $23.4M–$63.0M after Steam's cut $42.6M–$97.0M before Steam's cut	$19.99	124k reviews Very Positive	SurvivalOpen World Survival Craft
Outlast 2013	Est. copies ≈ 8.8M–14.4M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $36.4M–$98.0M after Steam's cut $66.3M–$150.7M before Steam's cut	$14.99	140k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	HorrorFirst-Person
INSIDE 2016	Est. copies ≈ 3.2M–5.2M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $21.8M–$58.7M after Steam's cut $39.7M–$90.3M before Steam's cut	$24.99	76k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	2.5DPuzzle-Platformer