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How many copies did Warrior Maiden Lecia and the Lost Fortress sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 5k–8k
$26k–$70k after Steam's cut $47k–$107k before Steam's cut
from 190 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Warrior Maiden Lecia and the Lost Fortress and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Warrior Maiden Lecia and the Lost Fortress's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.4M–4.7M
best case 40.7M (Wallpaper Engine)
Games like Warrior Maiden Lecia and the Lost Fortress

A typical game among these

≈ 1.4M–4.7M copies

≈ $6.3M–$14.8M after Steam's cut

from ~84k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Wallpaper Engine at ≈ 31.0M–50.3M copies, ≈ $42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 21k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 21k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Anime (5 of 8) and NSFW (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Mature + Utilities, priced around $5. The breakout hits carry Design & Illustration + Animation & Modeling + Utilities; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2022. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 31.0M–50.3M
12x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut
$4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities
Senren*Banka
2020
Est. copies
≈ 923k–1.5M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$8.9M–$23.9M after Steam's cut $16.2M–$36.7M before Steam's cut
$34.99
37k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Muse Dash
2019
Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$2.9M–$7.8M after Steam's cut $5.3M–$12.0M before Steam's cut
$2.99
122k reviews
Very Positive
MusicRhythm
VRChat
2017
Est. copies
≈ 9.3M–15.1M
3.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
269k reviews
Mostly Positive
VRFree to Play
Soundpad
2017
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$4.9M–$13.3M after Steam's cut $9.0M–$20.5M before Steam's cut
$4.99
105k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
UtilitiesAudio Production
Mirror
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$1.4M–$3.8M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.8M before Steam's cut
$1.99
84k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Sexual ContentNudity
Bright Memory: Infinite
2021
Est. copies
≈ 990k–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.4M–$14.6M after Steam's cut $9.9M–$22.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
40k reviews
Very Positive
ActionFemale Protagonist
LEGO® Star Wars™: The Skywalker Saga
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$16.5M–$44.5M after Steam's cut $30.1M–$68.4M before Steam's cut
$49.99
48k reviews
Very Positive
LEGOAdventure

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