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How many copies did MOUTHOLE sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 5k–8k
from 206 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid MOUTHOLE and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including MOUTHOLE's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 649k–816k
best case 2.2M (Core Keeper)
Games like MOUTHOLE

A typical game among these

≈ 649k–816k copies

≈ $1.1M–$5.2M after Steam's cut

from ~16k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Story Rich (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Core Keeper at ≈ 1.7M–2.7M copies, ≈ $9.3M–$24.9M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 4k reviews in their first month; the range was 1k to 39k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Story Rich (4 of 8) and Exploration (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World Survival Craft + Sandbox, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Open World Survival Craft + Online Co-Op + Sandbox; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Dome Keeper
2022
Est. copies
≈ 558k–906k
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$2.8M–$7.4M after Steam's cut $5.0M–$11.4M before Steam's cut
$17.99
22k reviews
Very Positive
SingleplayerPost-apocalyptic
Core Keeper
2024
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.7M
4.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$9.3M–$24.9M after Steam's cut $16.9M–$38.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
68k reviews
Very Positive
Pixel GraphicsOpen World Survival Craft
ANIMAL WELL
2024
Est. copies
≈ 612k–995k
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$4.2M–$11.3M after Steam's cut $7.6M–$17.4M before Steam's cut
$24.99
25k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MetroidvaniaExploration
FEZ
2013
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.7M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.8M–$7.6M after Steam's cut $5.1M–$11.7M before Steam's cut
$9.99
16k reviews
Very Positive
PlatformerIndie
Shower With Your Dad Simulator 2015: Do You Still Shower With Your Dad
2015
Est. copies
≈ 490k–796k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$133k–$358k after Steam's cut $242k–$551k before Steam's cut
$0.99
10k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Arcade2D
Impostor Factory
2021
Est. copies
≈ 319k–519k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$877k–$2.4M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
13k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Story RichEmotional
The Test
2020
Est. copies
≈ 499k–810k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$273k–$734k after Steam's cut $496k–$1.1M before Steam's cut
$1.99
20k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Choose Your Own AdventureSimulation
DISTRAINT: Deluxe Edition
2015
Est. copies
≈ 631k–1.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$866k–$2.3M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.6M before Steam's cut
$4.99
13k reviews
Very Positive

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