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How many copies did DubWars sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 12k–20k
$33k–$89k after Steam's cut $60k–$137k before Steam's cut
from 290 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid DubWars and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including DubWars's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 848k–3.9M
best case 47.6M (Geometry Dash)
Games like DubWars

A typical game among these

≈ 848k–3.9M copies

≈ $4.5M–$16.9M after Steam's cut

from ~35k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Geometry Dash at ≈ 36.2M–58.9M copies, ≈ $49.7M–$133.7M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 3k reviews in their first month; the range was 37 to 5k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Music (8 of 8) and Rhythm (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Music + Level Editor, priced around $5.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2008 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Sayonara Wild Hearts
2019
Est. copies
≈ 257k–418k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$920k–$2.5M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.8M before Steam's cut
$12.99
9k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Great SoundtrackRhythm
AudioSurf
2008
Est. copies
≈ 702k–1.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.9M–$5.2M after Steam's cut $3.5M–$8.0M before Steam's cut
$9.99
11k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MusicRhythm
Geometry Dash
2014
Est. copies
≈ 36.2M–58.9M
19x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$49.7M–$133.7M after Steam's cut $90.4M–$205.7M before Steam's cut
$4.99
647k reviews
Very Positive
DifficultMusic
A Dance of Fire and Ice
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.4M–3.9M
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$4.0M–$10.7M after Steam's cut $7.2M–$16.5M before Steam's cut
$5.99
84k reviews
Very Positive
RhythmMusic
BandRoll
2023
Est. copies
≈ 3k–4k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$1k–$4k after Steam's cut $3k–$6k before Steam's cut
$1.99
104 reviews
Very Positive
Early AccessRhythm
Muse Dash
2019
Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.7M
3.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$2.9M–$7.8M after Steam's cut $5.3M–$12.0M before Steam's cut
$2.99
122k reviews
Very Positive
MusicRhythm
Hatsune Miku: Project DIVA Mega Mix+
2022
Est. copies
≈ 590k–959k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$6.4M–$17.2M after Steam's cut $11.6M–$26.5M before Steam's cut
$39.39
24k reviews
Very Positive
RhythmAnime
DJMAX RESPECT V
2020
Est. copies
≈ 867k–1.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$11.9M–$32.1M after Steam's cut $21.7M–$49.3M before Steam's cut
$49.99
35k reviews
Very Positive
RhythmMusic

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