How much revenue did Sayonara Wild Hearts make?

$920k–$2.5M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Sayonara Wild Hearts sell?

Q: How many copies did Sayonara Wild Hearts sell?

257k to 418k copies, based on its 9k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 257k–418k; $920k–$2.5M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.8M before Steam's cut; from 9k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Sayonara Wild Hearts and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Sayonara Wild Hearts's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2k–3.5M

best case 47.6M (Geometry Dash)

Games like Sayonara Wild Hearts

A typical game among these

≈ 2k–3.5M copies

≈ $17k–$11.1M after Steam's cut

from ~40k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

5 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Geometry Dash at ≈ 36.2M–58.9M copies, ≈ $49.7M–$133.7M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 31 reviews in their first month; the range was 28 to 1k.

Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Music (8 of 8) and Rhythm (8 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Music + Level Editor, priced around $5.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2014 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Klang 2 2021	Est. copies ≈ 2k–3k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $6k–$17k after Steam's cut $12k–$27k before Steam's cut	$14.99	63 reviews Very Positive	RhythmMusic
Rhythm Nights 2019	Est. copies ≈ 58–94 SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $80–$213 after Steam's cut $145–$328 before Steam's cut	$4.99	2 reviews 2 user reviews	ActionIndie
SOUNDART 2020	Est. copies ≈ 2k–3k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $10k–$27k after Steam's cut $18k–$42k before Steam's cut	$19.99	74 reviews Mostly Positive	SportsCasual
Geometry Dash 2014	Est. copies ≈ 36.2M–58.9M 16x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $49.7M–$133.7M after Steam's cut $90.4M–$205.7M before Steam's cut	$4.99	647k reviews Very Positive	DifficultMusic
DEEMO -Reborn- 2020	Est. copies ≈ 83k–135k SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $570k–$1.5M after Steam's cut $1.0M–$2.4M before Steam's cut	$24.99	3k reviews Very Positive	RhythmAdventure
Muse Dash 2019	Est. copies ≈ 3.5M–5.7M 3.1x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $2.9M–$7.8M after Steam's cut $5.3M–$12.0M before Steam's cut	$2.99	122k reviews Very Positive	MusicRhythm
A Dance of Fire and Ice 2019	Est. copies ≈ 2.4M–3.9M 2.1x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $4.0M–$10.7M after Steam's cut $7.2M–$16.5M before Steam's cut	$5.99	84k reviews Very Positive	RhythmMusic
Beat Saber 2019	Est. copies ≈ 2.2M–3.6M 1.9x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $12.1M–$32.5M after Steam's cut $22.0M–$50.0M before Steam's cut	$19.99	76k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	VRRhythm