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How many copies did Rebel Galaxy sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 410k–666k
$2.3M–$6.1M after Steam's cut $4.1M–$9.3M before Steam's cut
from 8k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Rebel Galaxy and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Rebel Galaxy's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 607k–6.0M
best case 23.0M (No Man's Sky)
Games like Rebel Galaxy

A typical game among these

≈ 607k–6.0M copies

≈ $11.1M–$96.1M after Steam's cut

from ~57k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: No Man's Sky at ≈ 17.5M–28.5M copies, ≈ $289.3M–$777.8M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Open World (8 of 8) and Sci-fi (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Open World Survival Craft, priced around $60.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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1.6x vs typical
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Open WorldOpen World Survival Craft
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SpaceRPG

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