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How big is Endless Sky?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 347k–564k
from 7k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Endless Sky and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Endless Sky's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.6M–10.1M
best case 25.0M (Destiny 2)
Games like Endless Sky

A typical game among these

≈ 4.6M–10.1M copies

≈ $50.6M–$152.5M after Steam's cut

from ~160k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Destiny 2 at ≈ 19.1M–31.0M copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 11k reviews in their first month; the range was 7k to 96k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Open World (6 of 8) and Base-Building (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Looter Shooter.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Stormworks: Build and Rescue
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.3M–$27.6M after Steam's cut $18.7M–$42.5M before Steam's cut
$24.99
60k reviews
Very Positive
SandboxBase-Building
RimWorld
2018
Est. copies
≈ 7.6M–12.3M
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$72.7M–$195.4M after Steam's cut $132.2M–$300.7M before Steam's cut
$34.99
249k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Colony SimBase-Building
ASTRONEER
2019
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$33.1M–$89.1M after Steam's cut $60.2M–$137.0M before Steam's cut
$29.99
139k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerOpen World
Stellaris
2016
Est. copies
≈ 8.2M–13.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$112.6M–$302.6M after Steam's cut $204.7M–$465.6M before Steam's cut
$49.99
197k reviews
Very Positive
Destiny 2
2019
Est. copies
≈ 19.1M–31.0M
4.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
663k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayOpen World
PlanetSide 2
2012
Est. copies
≈ 4.7M–7.7M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
75k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayFPS
STAR WARS™: The Old Republic™
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.0M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
76k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayMultiplayer
Halo Infinite
2021
Est. copies
≈ 4.5M–7.3M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
181k reviews
Mixed
Free to PlayFPS

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.