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How many copies did Penguin Helper sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 13k–21k
$7k–$19k after Steam's cut $13k–$29k before Steam's cut
from 525 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Penguin Helper and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Penguin Helper's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 21k–285k
best case 878k (Maneater)
Games like Penguin Helper

A typical game among these

≈ 21k–285k copies

≈ $130k–$1.3M after Steam's cut

from ~2k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

5 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Exploration (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Maneater at ≈ 669k–1.1M copies, ≈ $7.4M–$19.8M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 193 reviews in their first month; the range was 16 to 2k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Exploration (4 of 8) and Walking Simulator (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Dark Humor, priced around $40.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2017 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Maneater
2021
Est. copies
≈ 669k–1.1M
17x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$7.4M–$19.8M after Steam's cut $13.4M–$30.4M before Steam's cut
$39.99
27k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldDark Humor
Sunlight
2021
Est. copies
≈ 12k–19k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$13k–$34k after Steam's cut $23k–$53k before Steam's cut
$3.99
468 reviews
Mostly Positive
AdventureExperimental
SEASON: A letter to the future
2023
Est. copies
≈ 52k–84k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$357k–$960k after Steam's cut $649k–$1.5M before Steam's cut
$24.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldMystery
Mushroom Season
2024
Est. copies
≈ 7k–12k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$29k–$79k after Steam's cut $53k–$121k before Steam's cut
$14.99
287 reviews
Very Positive
CasualSimulation
AER Memories of Old
2017
Est. copies
≈ 266k–433k
4.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$3.0M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.5M before Steam's cut
$14.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureExploration
A Highland Song
2023
Est. copies
≈ 17k–28k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$84k–$227k after Steam's cut $153k–$349k before Steam's cut
$17.99
688 reviews
Very Positive
Exploration2D Platformer
The First Tree
2017
Est. copies
≈ 201k–327k
3.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$552k–$1.5M after Steam's cut $1.0M–$2.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
6k reviews
Mostly Positive
AtmosphericAdventure
NUTS
2021
Est. copies
≈ 27k–44k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$186k–$500k after Steam's cut $338k–$769k before Steam's cut
$24.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
Story RichDetective

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