How much revenue did The First Tree make?

$552k–$1.5M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did The First Tree sell?

Q: How many copies did The First Tree sell?

201k to 327k copies, based on its 6k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 201k–327k; $552k–$1.5M after Steam's cut $1.0M–$2.3M before Steam's cut; from 6k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The First Tree and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The First Tree's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.8M–3.6M

best case 27.5M (Fallout 4)

Games like The First Tree

A typical game among these

≈ 1.8M–3.6M copies

≈ $15.0M–$37.0M after Steam's cut

from ~53k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Fallout 4 at ≈ 21.0M–34.1M copies, ≈ $115.2M–$309.7M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 5k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 11k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Exploration (6 of 8) and Walking Simulator (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World + Post-apocalyptic, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry RPG + Shooter + Open World; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2013 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
The Stanley Parable 2013	Est. copies ≈ 2.9M–4.7M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $11.9M–$32.1M after Steam's cut $21.7M–$49.4M before Steam's cut	$14.99	46k reviews Very Positive	ComedyNarration
Fallout 4 2015	Est. copies ≈ 21.0M–34.1M 8.1x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $115.2M–$309.7M after Steam's cut $209.4M–$476.5M before Steam's cut	$19.99	429k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldPost-apocalyptic
Firewatch 2016	Est. copies ≈ 4.2M–6.8M 1.9x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $22.9M–$61.5M after Steam's cut $41.6M–$94.6M before Steam's cut	$19.99	100k reviews Very Positive	AdventureAtmospheric
What Remains of Edith Finch 2017	Est. copies ≈ 1.8M–3.0M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $10.1M–$27.2M after Steam's cut $18.4M–$41.8M before Steam's cut	$19.99	53k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Story RichAtmospheric
The Stanley Parable: Ultra Deluxe 2022	Est. copies ≈ 898k–1.5M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $6.2M–$16.6M after Steam's cut $11.2M–$25.5M before Steam's cut	$24.99	36k reviews Very Positive	Multiple EndingsComedy
SOMA 2015	Est. copies ≈ 2.6M–4.2M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $21.4M–$57.4M after Steam's cut $38.8M–$88.3M before Steam's cut	$29.99	53k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Horror Psychological Horror
Journey 2020	Est. copies ≈ 958k–1.6M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $3.9M–$10.6M after Steam's cut $7.2M–$16.3M before Steam's cut	$14.99	39k reviews Very Positive	BeautifulAtmospheric
DEATH STRANDING DIRECTOR'S CUT 2022	Est. copies ≈ 1.7M–2.8M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $18.8M–$50.6M after Steam's cut $34.2M–$77.8M before Steam's cut	$39.99	69k reviews Very Positive	Story RichOpen World