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How many copies did Lemma sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 12k–20k
$50k–$135k after Steam's cut $91k–$208k before Steam's cut
from 250 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Lemma and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Lemma's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 203k–1.3M
best case 3.7M (Dishonored 2)
Games like Lemma

A typical game among these

≈ 203k–1.3M copies

≈ $2.5M–$16.1M after Steam's cut

from ~12k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Dishonored 2 at ≈ 2.8M–4.5M copies, ≈ $23.0M–$61.8M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Female Protagonist (6 of 8) and First-Person (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Stealth + First-Person, priced around $30.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2009 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Red Trigger
2016
Est. copies
≈ 84k–136k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$161k–$432k after Steam's cut $292k–$665k before Steam's cut
$6.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
3D PlatformerFPS
404Sight
2015
Est. copies
≈ 87k–141k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2k reviews
Very Positive
ActionIndie
Mirror's Edge™
2009
Est. copies
≈ 2.5M–4.0M
3.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$13.7M–$36.8M after Steam's cut $24.9M–$56.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
39k reviews
Very Positive
Action-AdventureParkour
Dishonored®: Death of the Outsider™
2017
Est. copies
≈ 461k–749k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.8M–$10.2M after Steam's cut $6.9M–$15.7M before Steam's cut
$29.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
StealthAction
Dishonored 2
2016
Est. copies
≈ 2.8M–4.5M
5.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$23.0M–$61.8M after Steam's cut $41.8M–$95.0M before Steam's cut
$29.99
67k reviews
Very Positive
StealthFirst-Person
Hot Lava
2019
Est. copies
≈ 178k–289k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$977k–$2.6M after Steam's cut $1.8M–$4.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
6k reviews
Very Positive
Precision Platformer3D Platformer
Mirror's Edge™ Catalyst
2020
Est. copies
≈ 411k–668k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.3M–$6.1M after Steam's cut $4.1M–$9.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
17k reviews
Mostly Positive
ParkourFemale Protagonist
Severed Steel
2021
Est. copies
≈ 255k–414k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.8M–$4.7M after Steam's cut $3.2M–$7.2M before Steam's cut
$24.99
10k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSBullet Time

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