How much revenue did NAGAISAN make?

$3k–$8k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did NAGAISAN sell?

Q: How many copies did NAGAISAN sell?

4k to 6k copies, based on its 144 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 4k–6k; $3k–$8k after Steam's cut $5k–$12k before Steam's cut; from 144 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid NAGAISAN and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including NAGAISAN's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.9M–3.7M

best case 51.1M (Dead by Daylight)

Games like NAGAISAN

A typical game among these

≈ 2.9M–3.7M copies

≈ $8.7M–$14.9M after Steam's cut

from ~82k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Horror (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Dead by Daylight at ≈ 39.0M–63.3M copies, ≈ $214.2M–$575.9M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 12k reviews in their first month; the range was 7k to 144k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Horror (3 of 8) and Platformer (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Story Rich + Choices Matter, priced around $10. The breakout hits carry Gore; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2015 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Undertale 2015	Est. copies ≈ 16.8M–27.2M 4.2x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $46.0M–$123.8M after Steam's cut $83.7M–$190.4M before Steam's cut	$9.99	343k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Great SoundtrackStory Rich
People Playground 2019	Est. copies ≈ 9.2M–15.0M 3.9x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $25.4M–$68.2M after Steam's cut $46.1M–$104.9M before Steam's cut	$9.99	321k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	SandboxGore
Cookie Clicker 2021	Est. copies ≈ 2.3M–3.8M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $3.2M–$8.5M after Steam's cut $5.8M–$13.1M before Steam's cut	$4.99	93k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	ClickerIdler
Dead by Daylight 2016	Est. copies ≈ 39.0M–63.3M 11x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $214.2M–$575.9M after Steam's cut $389.4M–$886.0M before Steam's cut	$19.99	937k reviews Mostly Positive	HorrorMultiplayer
Fall Guys 2020	Est. copies ≈ 11.6M–18.9M 5.7x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue Free	Free	468k reviews Very Positive	MultiplayerParty Game
Business Tour - Board Game with Online Multiplayer 2017	Est. copies ≈ 2.8M–4.5M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue Free	Free	81k reviews Mixed	Board GameFree to Play
Getting Over It with Bennett Foddy 2017	Est. copies ≈ 2.8M–4.6M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $6.2M–$16.8M after Steam's cut $11.4M–$25.8M before Steam's cut	$7.99	83k reviews Very Positive	Psychological HorrorDifficult
Pizza Tower 2023	Est. copies ≈ 1.8M–2.9M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $9.9M–$26.7M after Steam's cut $18.0M–$41.1M before Steam's cut	$19.99	73k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Great Soundtrack2D Platformer