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How many copies did Moon Hunters sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 218k–354k
$898k–$2.4M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.7M before Steam's cut
from 5k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Moon Hunters and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Moon Hunters's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 13k–87k
best case 104k (Dreamscaper)
Games like Moon Hunters

A typical game among these

≈ 13k–87k copies

≈ $72k–$457k after Steam's cut

from ~873 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

4 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Dreamscaper at ≈ 79k–128k copies, ≈ $543k–$1.5M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 485 reviews in their first month; the range was 155 to 2k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Rogue-lite (6 of 8) and Action Roguelike (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action Roguelike + Rogue-lite, priced around $25.
When they shipped
Only 2 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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3.1x vs typical
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3.6x vs typical
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